Sunday, January 6, 2013

Is 'Getting Hot Late' a Lie?

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Nobody is hotter right now than the Seahawks. In fact, over the past six years, no team has had a larger point differential in the final four games of the season than the Seahawks. We're +127. The Redskins were +37. Both teams were 4-4. Nice numbers, but the 'Hawks have the advantage, right?

Well, no. Over the previous five seasons, getting hot late has meant squat. There is no correlation between winning games or winning the point spread over the final four games of the season and winning in the playoffs. None. Zip. I won't bore you with the math, but trust me, over the past five years, "getting hot late" means nothing.

What pundit hasn't said that "you want to get hot heading into the playoffs"? Everybody on ESPN says it. I've said it. You've probably said it too. But over the past five years, it simply hasn't been true.

The good news is that there is no negative correlation. Sucking in the final four games doesn't help either.

It looks like the cliche, "everybody is 0 and 0 going into the playoffs", is the more accurate statement. What happened in the regular season is just the warm up act.

So, why is this? In my opinion, the regular season is there to get less competent teams (and some competent ones too) out of the mix. Playoff teams have proven that they don't completely suck. Put two competent teams in the same stadium and almost anything can happen in the NFL.

Another factor is injuries. They can be random. Last night we saw Joe Webb for the first time this year. Is there any surprise that he couldn't beat Aaron Rodgers? The final four games of the regular season couldn't predict that Ponder wouldn't be active. It didn't matter that Minnesota went 4-0 at the end of the season.

Also consider that the record in the final four games doesn't predict seeding and matchups. It doesn't tell you if Miami has to play in Buffalo in a blizzard.

Maybe the weakest part of the "hot late" argument is that it doesn't take "heart" into consideration. A great team might have won their division early while a pretty good team might be clawing for a wildcard spot at the end. The great team might not be as motivated at the end of the season as they are once the playoff curtain rises.

Putting this together, I think the Seahawks are in a great position to win. It doesn't matter that they won at the end. What matters is that they are a competent team with a good quarterback and that they are healthy. Get into the playoffs with those assets and you have as good a chance as anybody. After that, it comes down to match ups. We match up well with the Redskins, the weather won't be insane, and RGIII is a bit beat up. And we just got Browner back.

Pete is right to coach the team to believe that every game is a championship game. We didn't win at the end simply because we were motivated. We weren't playing beyond ourselves. And we don't need to play beyond ourselves to win in Washington.

Hot or not, the Seahawks can feel good about their odds going into this game. And that's no lie.

Thursday, January 3, 2013

Common Opponent: Seahawks and Redskins vs. Panthers

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This year, the Seahawks and Redskins played five games against common opponents, but one opponent best illuminates Sunday’s Wild Card teams: the Carolina Panthers. Like the ‘Hawks and ‘Skins, the Panthers have a young, gifted, physical quarterback, Cam Newton – last year’s offensive rookie of the year. And Carolina employs the zone-read option. This is as good a measure as we can get between the two defenses.

Over the year, Carolina ranked 13th in DVOA at +5.5%, so they were slightly above average. They were balanced, ranking 10th in offense and 11th in defense. The offense earned an average of 22.3 points while the defense allowed 22.7, which sounds about right for a 7-9 team. Say what you will about the Panthers, but they make a good strawman team.

So, how did the Seahawks and Redskins do against them? The Seahawks won 16-12 on the road. The Redskins lost 21-13 at home. You read that right. Seattle won on the road (and this was in Week 5, before OC Darrell Bevell unleashed Wilson) while RG3 & Co. lost at home in the ninth week of the season.

The Seahawks defense limited the Panthers to 190 yards with 108 in the air and 82 on the ground. Only the Jets and Cards had games with fewer yards against Seattle this year. Yes folks, the Seahawks can defend against the zone-read option. On offense, the ‘Hawks earned 310 yards with 212 in the air and 98 on the ground. Bruce Irvin, Jason Jones, and Chris Clemons were especially disruptive on D, though Jones is now on IR and won’t be a factor in DC. Mebane, Branch, and Wagner shut down runs up the gut. By many measurements, this was the worst performance of Cam Newton’s career. Seattle’s secondary had something to do with this, shutting down veteran Steve Smith.

Seattle’s D was so effective that at 2:03 in the 3rd quarter, Chris Clemons batted down a Newton pass – even though Seattle had only ten men on the field.

The Redskins D didn’t do nearly as well, allowing Carolina 330 yards with 201 in the air and 129 on the ground. On offense, the ‘Skins moved the ball well but weren’t able to convert yards to points. They had 337 yards with 186 in the air and 151 on the ground but only visited the end zone once, late in the 4th quarter.

DeAngelo Hall defended well, but former Seahawk Josh “Shorty” Wilson gave up big yards and had a couple of PI calls against him. Tyler Polumbus (a recent Seattle alum) gave up 11 of 20 quarterback disruptions. If anybody knows Polumbus’ weaknesses, it’s the Seahawks.

People talk about London Fletcher still being effective, but after the visit from Carolina, he had eight negative grades in nine games from ProFootballFocus, failing to collect a stop and giving up all four passes that came his way for 36 yards.

These games don’t give a lot of insight into the Seattle and Washington offenses. The Carolina defense won’t be on the field, and a lot has changed particularly for Seattle’s offense since Week 5. No, these games tell us about defenses and how they handle a quarterback who can present multiple threats and get down the field in a hurry. The Seahawks measured up well against Carolina and they did it on the road. The Redskins D, on the other hand, had some soft spots, even when playing at home.

Advantage: Seahawks. Even when playing on the road.

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