Is 'Getting Hot Late' a Lie?

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Nobody is hotter right now than the Seahawks. In fact, over the past six years, no team has had a larger point differential in the final four games of the season than the Seahawks. We're +127. The Redskins were +37. Both teams were 4-4. Nice numbers, but the 'Hawks have the advantage, right?

Well, no. Over the previous five seasons, getting hot late has meant squat. There is no correlation between winning games or winning the point spread over the final four games of the season and winning in the playoffs. None. Zip. I won't bore you with the math, but trust me, over the past five years, "getting hot late" means nothing.

What pundit hasn't said that "you want to get hot heading into the playoffs"? Everybody on ESPN says it. I've said it. You've probably said it too. But over the past five years, it simply hasn't been true.

The good news is that there is no negative correlation. Sucking in the final four games doesn't help either.

It looks like the cliche, "everybody is 0 and 0 going into the playoffs", is the more accurate statement. What happened in the regular season is just the warm up act.

So, why is this? In my opinion, the regular season is there to get less competent teams (and some competent ones too) out of the mix. Playoff teams have proven that they don't completely suck. Put two competent teams in the same stadium and almost anything can happen in the NFL.

Another factor is injuries. They can be random. Last night we saw Joe Webb for the first time this year. Is there any surprise that he couldn't beat Aaron Rodgers? The final four games of the regular season couldn't predict that Ponder wouldn't be active. It didn't matter that Minnesota went 4-0 at the end of the season.

Also consider that the record in the final four games doesn't predict seeding and matchups. It doesn't tell you if Miami has to play in Buffalo in a blizzard.

Maybe the weakest part of the "hot late" argument is that it doesn't take "heart" into consideration. A great team might have won their division early while a pretty good team might be clawing for a wildcard spot at the end. The great team might not be as motivated at the end of the season as they are once the playoff curtain rises.

Putting this together, I think the Seahawks are in a great position to win. It doesn't matter that they won at the end. What matters is that they are a competent team with a good quarterback and that they are healthy. Get into the playoffs with those assets and you have as good a chance as anybody. After that, it comes down to match ups. We match up well with the Redskins, the weather won't be insane, and RGIII is a bit beat up. And we just got Browner back.

Pete is right to coach the team to believe that every game is a championship game. We didn't win at the end simply because we were motivated. We weren't playing beyond ourselves. And we don't need to play beyond ourselves to win in Washington.

Hot or not, the Seahawks can feel good about their odds going into this game. And that's no lie.